Apple devices have a lifespan of 4¼

The average lifespan of iPhone devices sold in 2008-2017 (number of quarters)

Asymco experts have calculated the average lifespan of Apple devices. It turned out that now he has reached a record high and exceeded four years, and specifically it is four years and three months. This is a significant progress compared with 2008-2012, when the average life of the iPhone was about one and a half years, or even less.

The idea to calculate the average life of the device was born to Asymco employees after Tim Cook for the second time in history named the number of active Apple devices that are in circulation.

The first time this figure was announced in January 2016: then there were 1 billion active devices in circulation around the world. Following the IV quarter. In 2017, the figure was 1.3 billion devices. Knowing the quarterly sales, to calculate the average life of the device - a matter of technology, more precisely, mathematics.

“Apple devices” means Mac computers, iPhones, iPads, Apple Watch and iPod touch players, but not Apple TV set-top boxes or other peripherals and accessories. However, it is clear that smartphones make up the lion's share in this volume.

So, according to quarterly reports, since January 2016, Apple has sold 586,744,000 devices, and the number of active devices has grown by 300,000,000 units. That is, two-thirds of Apple devices sold are working today. The most curious thing is that the logistic curve shows that this rule is observed at any given time . That is, at any time in active use there were always two thirds of Apple devices sold by that time . Well, at almost any time. The only exceptions are the first quarters after the start of sales.



Here is the visualization of this calculation in the form of a graph.



Visually, the average service life of devices is the horizontal distance between two vertical black lines.

The second of these segments (top) corresponds to the difference between the number sold and the number of active devices. That is, the number of devices that have failed.

The lower of the segments is set at the point where the number of devices that have failed by the present moment corresponded to the cumulative volume of devices sold (with a cumulative total).

From an arithmetic point of view, at any time moment t, the average lifetime of a device is equal to the time difference between t and the time point when the total sales volume reached the value of the number of failed devices at time t .

To date, the corporation has sold 2.05 billion smartphones, tablets and computers around the world, of which 750 million devices have become obsolete. Thus, now the life of devices is equal to the difference in time between the present moment and the moment when the cumulative sales volume reached 750 million. Now this difference is 17 quarters, that is, 4 years and three months.

According to analysts, the indicator of the number of active is a very important metric that allows you to assess the value of Apple's business. Through this metric, we can find out what percentage of all devices sold are in circulation and the number of Apple users. Now we got the third important indicator - the average life of Apple devices. This is a supporting metric that indirectly reflects user satisfaction, loyalty, and brand loyalty. This is crucial for assessing the prospects of a business: how confident it will be in the future, what are its prospects. Unlike other metrics, this indicator tells us about the future, and not about the past.

As shown below, this figure (the average lifetime of devices) allows you to calculate Apple’s future cash flow and financial performance in future quarters, that is, in essence, Apple’s value.



Perhaps it is even possible to predict a change in the stock price. The company Asymco promises in the following publications in its blog to tell you more about the calculation of the projected financial indicators based on information about the average life of the device.