Trends of gamedev 2019 IMHO. Decentralization?

What happens in the gaming market:

1. Development tools are simplified.
2. The number of games produced increases.
3. Steam, App Store, Play Market - pop on the number of games.
4. Sales for 1 game are reduced, marketing expenses of studios are increasing.
5. Dependence on stores decreases.

Everything goes to decentralization ? Let's develop this thought. I ask under the cat.
! There's not a word about cryptocurrency.

Old times

Previously, Steam served as a publisher. That is, if you have a good game, then Steam was a guaranteed source of sales. He switched his audience to the game and brought a bunch of buyers.

But the problem is that every year this function worked worse and worse. It's all about the unstoppable increase in the number of games. In 2018, Steam has become more games for 9300. This is a huge amount!

Steam has ceased to be the place where your game is guaranteed to receive sales. Now the decisive factor in the success of the game is its own audience. She is waiting for the game and is ready to buy it.

Then for what to pay Steam 30 percent from sales of games? Is it worth it? So many game studios thought and began to leave Steam on their own or alternative sites. The same Fortnite, for example.

All this led to the emergence of new sites:

• There are several new gaming stores: Epic Games Store (and Epic Games has become more expensive than Valve at $ 3 billion). His store appeared in the Discord. Humble Store and GOG are actively developing.
• Several stores were announced at once with a minimum commission (from 0 to 5 percent of sales). These are stores that perform only the function of selling goods. No audience, nothing. Filled the game, led the audience - got a sale. For example, the store of Brian Fargo, a well-known game producer, will have a commission of 5 percent and the games can be resold ( read here )

What does this mean for the market?

• That the role of publishers in the market will grow. If you want to be successful - make an awesome game, and then look for an awesome publisher who can present your game in the most favorable light.
• That those studios that learn to collect audiences themselves, or around which there is already a fan base, will win in the competition.
• That the role of marketing before the release of the game will increase many times. Already it will be impossible to develop a game, come and immediately sell it. It will be necessary to talk about the game, to attract the audience to the tests. Show game features. Engage fans in making a decision, engaging them in development. In general, to maximize the interest of the audience before the start of sales.
• This will greatly increase the chances of those studios who generate tons of content. Look at Star Citizen. They have already attracted 200 million dollars! And they are still very far from the release. It seems they will release the game only in 2020 or 2021. No one really knows. And they announced the game in 2013.

Video on the topic, but in English:

How to be studios?

Now it is not enough to make a good game, you need to gather an audience around it. Therefore, those studios will survive that will find a strong publisher and will constantly cooperate with it, or those who will develop the marketing department and create mountains of content.

What do you think?