Bitcoin, as a currency, will lead to an economic crisis
I'll start with the good. There is one major advantage in Bitcoin - the speed of payments.
Yes, it is speed. Someone may object: “how is it that I pay with the card instantly, and then I have to wait 20-30-40 minutes for the transaction to enter the unit and confirm it”.
But everything is not quite so. When you pay with a card, the store agrees to give you the goods "on credit". In Russia, we will receive a refund for your goods only on the next working day, and even then the banks themselves lend to such a store, since money flows in international payment systems only on the third working day. In Europe, it may be even longer - for example, reimbursement once a week.
Agree, 30 minutes and a few days is already a significant difference.
Same swift payments go a few days. Imagine that you can ship the goods only after you pay the supplier - i.e. you have to cover the cash gap from your pocket. And so all modern payment systems work.
As the barter economy evolves toward ever more complex monetary systems, transaction costs and total circulation costs decrease. The less time we spend on the transfer of money - the lower the transaction costs. And just then Bitcoin wins compared to conventional transfers between accounts.
But, nevertheless, Bitcoin is not a means of payment, and here's why: its main problem is the finite issue embedded in it.
With the growth of the economy - should grow the money supply.
For example, let's replace the ruble in the country's economy with Bitcoin and this is what we get: Suppose that in circulation 1 Bitcoin and for it you can buy 1 loaf of bread. Production is growing and now the baker can offer 2 loaves of bread, but only 1 Bitcoin is in circulation. Those. for 1in bitcoin you can already buy 2 loaves of bread. So what will a Bitcoin owner do? He will wait tomorrow or the day after tomorrow, when he can buy 3-4-5, etc., for his 1-bit bitcoin. loaves of bread. He will not spend.
Such a process in the economy is called deflation - and it is destructive. Consumption is falling, factories are closing, unemployment is growing - the economy is entering a recession and falling into a crisis.
This is where the state comes to the rescue - it prints more money. In general, central banks are trying to maintain an acceptable level of inflation, stimulating the population to spend. Sad as it may sound, the economy needs inflation.
In Bitcoin, however, the emission is finite, moreover, the costs of issuing new coins are quite high.
No matter how many slogans I hear, that bitcoin can be divided almost infinitely and it will be enough - this will not solve the problem of deflation.
The slogans that we will no longer need banks are also erroneous. In order for the economy to grow it is necessary to invest savings.
Banks do this much better for us, while diversifying their portfolios. Those. banks distribute risks. For example, they give out credit to a million people, and not to one. Which significantly reduces the risk of losing all funds at once, if this one
the person will not return the loan.
If everyone starts to keep the currency in their own wallet - investment in the economy will decrease, which will also lead to a recession and another crisis.
If we consider Bitcoin as a kind of currency for international settlements, then the finite Bitcoin issue here also plays a decisive role. The world economy is growing, so for its maintenance from year to year requires more money supply.
To summarize: Bitcoin and similar cryptocurrencies will remain the means of speculation and nothing more, until a better breakthrough occurs. After all, there are positive features - this is the same speed of operations.
Yes, it is speed. Someone may object: “how is it that I pay with the card instantly, and then I have to wait 20-30-40 minutes for the transaction to enter the unit and confirm it”.
But everything is not quite so. When you pay with a card, the store agrees to give you the goods "on credit". In Russia, we will receive a refund for your goods only on the next working day, and even then the banks themselves lend to such a store, since money flows in international payment systems only on the third working day. In Europe, it may be even longer - for example, reimbursement once a week.
Agree, 30 minutes and a few days is already a significant difference.
Same swift payments go a few days. Imagine that you can ship the goods only after you pay the supplier - i.e. you have to cover the cash gap from your pocket. And so all modern payment systems work.
As the barter economy evolves toward ever more complex monetary systems, transaction costs and total circulation costs decrease. The less time we spend on the transfer of money - the lower the transaction costs. And just then Bitcoin wins compared to conventional transfers between accounts.
But, nevertheless, Bitcoin is not a means of payment, and here's why: its main problem is the finite issue embedded in it.
With the growth of the economy - should grow the money supply.
For example, let's replace the ruble in the country's economy with Bitcoin and this is what we get: Suppose that in circulation 1 Bitcoin and for it you can buy 1 loaf of bread. Production is growing and now the baker can offer 2 loaves of bread, but only 1 Bitcoin is in circulation. Those. for 1in bitcoin you can already buy 2 loaves of bread. So what will a Bitcoin owner do? He will wait tomorrow or the day after tomorrow, when he can buy 3-4-5, etc., for his 1-bit bitcoin. loaves of bread. He will not spend.
Such a process in the economy is called deflation - and it is destructive. Consumption is falling, factories are closing, unemployment is growing - the economy is entering a recession and falling into a crisis.
This is where the state comes to the rescue - it prints more money. In general, central banks are trying to maintain an acceptable level of inflation, stimulating the population to spend. Sad as it may sound, the economy needs inflation.
In Bitcoin, however, the emission is finite, moreover, the costs of issuing new coins are quite high.
No matter how many slogans I hear, that bitcoin can be divided almost infinitely and it will be enough - this will not solve the problem of deflation.
The slogans that we will no longer need banks are also erroneous. In order for the economy to grow it is necessary to invest savings.
Banks do this much better for us, while diversifying their portfolios. Those. banks distribute risks. For example, they give out credit to a million people, and not to one. Which significantly reduces the risk of losing all funds at once, if this one
the person will not return the loan.
If everyone starts to keep the currency in their own wallet - investment in the economy will decrease, which will also lead to a recession and another crisis.
If we consider Bitcoin as a kind of currency for international settlements, then the finite Bitcoin issue here also plays a decisive role. The world economy is growing, so for its maintenance from year to year requires more money supply.
To summarize: Bitcoin and similar cryptocurrencies will remain the means of speculation and nothing more, until a better breakthrough occurs. After all, there are positive features - this is the same speed of operations.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/437228/